Mystery Stock #1
~$15B · US retailer
Figures as of October 7, 2026 · not live
Five numbers from a real company's filings, name hidden. Call each one green, yellow or red, give your verdict, and then see who it is — and how Stocky and everyone else called it.
Note: by design, the model only counts cash and debt from the balance sheet, not other investments. This company holds ~$5.2B of them (mostly listed shares and securities). Counting them, fair value is roughly 25–40% below today's price instead of 60%, and the multiple is ~18x instead of 29x (peers 10–13x). Would you count them? Your call.
1. Earnings Yield
6.1%
Each $100 of share price buys $6.12 of the last twelve months' profit. A safe bond pays roughly $4-5.
Specialty Retail median: 5.1% (19 companies)
2. Return on Capital
108.7%
Operating profit for a year, against the money tied up in running the business (working capital plus property and equipment).
Specialty Retail median: 38.6% (18 companies)
3. Acquirer's Multiple
29.0x
Buying the whole company — debt included, cash netted off — costs 29.0 years of its operating profit.
Competitors: BBY (Best Buy Co Inc) 10.0x · TGT (Target Corp) 13.3x
4. FS-Score
7/10
Ten pass/fail checks of profitability, balance-sheet strength and whether the business is improving.
Current Profitability: 3/3
Stability: 1/3
Recent Operational Improvements: 3/4
5. Intrinsic Value (DCF)
-59.7%
A 10-year cash-flow model puts fair value 59.7% below today's price.
Assumes free cash flow grows 0.0% a year for 10 years, then 3.0% forever, discounted at 15.0%.
Revenue growth: last FY -5.1% · 5-yr avg -6.5%/yr
Free cash flow: FY2024 -$238.6M · FY2025 $129.6M · FY2026 $597.3M
Your verdict
Knowing only these five numbers, what would you do?
Past mysteries · Educational only. No investment advice.