GIS — General Mills Inc
Snapshot dated September 29, 2026.
General Mills is a multinational food manufacturer that produces a wide variety of branded consumer foods, which are sold primarily through retail stores. Its portfolio includes well-known items such as Cheerios cereal, Häagen-Dazs ice cream, Yoplait yogurt, and Pillsbury dough products, alongside pet food brands like Blue Buffalo. The company organizes its operations across segments including North America Retail, International, Pet, and North America Foodservice, with the North America Retail segment typically driving the largest portion of sales. It serves a broad customer base, including grocery chains, mass merchandisers, convenience stores, and restaurant operators across the globe. With a legacy spanning over a century, the company maintains a significant global footprint, employing tens of thousands of people and managing supply chains that span multiple continents. Recently, the company has focused on pivoting its portfolio toward faster-growing categories like pet nutrition and premium food products to offset shifts in consumer demand for its traditional dry goods.
Fair Value / Share
$37.62
Price on September 29, 2026
$33.53
Upside to fair value
12.2%
Margin of safety 10.9%
Upside is measured against what you pay; margin of safety is measured against what the business is worth.
Data by Equibles and SEC filings. Figures are as of September 29, 2026 and are not live.
Earnings Yield
Earnings Yield shows how much profit a company generates relative to its share price. EPS ÷ Stock Price.
Stock Price
$33.53
Market Cap
$18,035,787,000
Net Income (TTM)
-$894,800,000
Diluted Shares
537.9 million
EPS (TTM)
-$1.66
Earnings Yield
-4.96%
AI Analysis
General Mills currently displays an earnings yield of -4.96%, a figure derived from its EPS of $-1.66 and a share price of $33.53. Because the company’s net income is negative, this yield sits below the 4-5% return available from safe, alternative investments like bonds. Mechanically, this negative yield indicates that the company is currently generating a loss per share rather than a positive return on its market valuation. For this yield to become positive and approach or exceed the 4-5% benchmark, the company would need to return to profitability or significantly increase its net income relative to the current share price. This single measure captures only the relationship between trailing earnings and price, and does not account for future earnings growth potential, debt levels, or changes in operational efficiency.
Return on Capital
EBIT ÷ (Net Working Capital + Net Fixed Assets) — how efficiently the business turns capital into profit.
EBIT (TTM)
-$206,400,000
Net Working Capital
-$2,287,200,000
Net Fixed Assets
$3,383,400,000
Invested Capital
$1,096,200,000
Return on Capital
-18.83%
AI Analysis
General Mills (GIS) generated an EBIT of -$206.4M against an invested capital base of $1.1B, which is the sum of -$2.3B in net working capital and $3.4B in net fixed assets. This results in a return on capital of -18.83%. Within this framework, a figure of 30% or more is considered an efficient use of capital, while 15% to 30% is regarded as adequate; a negative return on capital indicates that the business did not generate profit relative to the capital deployed to operate it. This measurement is a reflection of operational performance based on tangible assets and does not account for potential shifts in profitability or strategic investments that might depress current earnings. To move this result into positive territory, the business would need to demonstrate consistent, positive EBIT to offset the $1.1B in invested capital currently sustaining operations.
FS-Score
A 10-check read on financial health, across profitability, balance-sheet stability and operating momentum.
FS-Score
4/10
Low overall score — check which pillar below is dragging it down before assuming this is cheap for a bad reason.
Section 1
Current Profitability
1/3
Profitability is Weak, with only one of three checks passing as the company generated free cash flow but reported a bottom-line loss.
- Return on Assets is -0.29%, failing the requirement to be positive.
- Free Cash Flow to Total Assets is 5.42%, indicating the business generates cash despite accounting losses.
- Accruals failed with a value of -24.73, as cash flow from operations did not exceed net income.
A shift to positive net income would be required to change the score in this section, as current results show a gap between accounting profits and cash generation.
Return on Assets (ROA > 0)
FailFree Cash Flow to Total Assets (FCFTA > 0)
PassAccruals (CFO / Net Income > 1)
FailSection 2
Stability
2/3
The stability profile is Mixed, reflecting a reduction in share count and slightly better liquidity offset by a rising debt burden.
- Leverage increased from 0.38 to 0.41, failing the check for flat or declining debt relative to assets.
- Liquidity improved slightly with the current ratio rising from 0.67 to 0.68.
- Net Dilution passed as the annual weighted average share count fell from 557.5 million to 537.7 million shares.
Maintaining this score or improving it depends on whether the company can continue to reduce its share count while preventing further increases in its long-term debt relative to its asset base.
Change in Leverage (↓ or unchanged)
FailChange in Liquidity (↑ Current Ratio)
PassNet Dilution (annual diluted weighted-average shares, this year vs last)
PassSection 3
Recent Operational Improvements
1/4
Operational improvements are Weak, as most efficiency and margin metrics trended downward over the last year.
- Return on Assets declined from 6.94% to -0.29% year over year.
- Free Cash Flow to Total Assets fell from 6.93% to 5.42%.
- Gross Margin contracted from 34.55% to 33.63%.
- Asset Turnover improved from 0.59 to 0.61, indicating higher revenue generated per dollar of assets.
This score suggests a period of operational softening; a reversal would require stabilizing gross margins and returning to year-over-year growth in cash flow productivity.
Change in ROA (↑)
FailChange in FCFTA (↑)
FailChange in Gross Margin (↑)
FailChange in Asset Turnover (↑)
PassFramework conclusion
The total score of 4/10 places the company in the 'Proceed with caution' category, driven primarily by weak profitability and declining operational trends. This score suggests that if the stock is trading at a low valuation, that price may reflect genuine fundamental deterioration rather than a simple market mispricing. The disconnect between positive free cash flow and a negative return on assets is a primary factor in this measured stability.
- Return on Assets fell to -0.29% from 6.94% in the prior year.
- Gross Margin decreased to 33.63%, indicating a slight reduction in pricing power or higher input costs.
- The company reduced its share count to 537.7 million shares, a positive sign for per-share stability.
- Asset Turnover rose to 0.61, providing a lone signal of improved operational efficiency.
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
A 10-year discounted cash flow, then the bridge from business value to value per share.
Reported cash flow → unlevered free cash flow
Free Cash Flow (reported)
$1.5B
+ After-Tax Interest Expense
$459.1M
= Unlevered Free Cash Flow
$2B
Business value (10-year DCF)
PV of Years 1–10
$14.4B
PV of Terminal Value
$19B
= Business Value
$33.4B
Terminal value share
56.77%
Business value → share value
Intrinsic Value (business)
$33.4B
+ Cash & Equivalents
$433.1M
− Debt
$13.6B
= Shareholders' Value
$20.2B
÷ Diluted Shares
537.9 million
= Fair Value / Share
$37.62
Divided by 537.9 million diluted shares — the weighted-average diluted count from the most recent quarterly income statement, for the quarter ended 2026-08-30.
Risk bucket → discount rate
low (9%)
Year-1 FCF
$2B
Trailing twelve months.
FY2024 $2.5B · FY2025 $2.3B · FY2026 $1.6B
Growth rate (yrs 1–10)
3%
Terminal growth (after yr 10)
3%
AI Analysis
General Mills is categorized in the low-risk bucket with a 9% discount rate, reflecting the stability and recession-resilient nature of its consumer staples business model. The forecast begins with a Year-1 FCF of $2.0B, a fixed figure derived from trailing twelve-month data. For future growth over the next ten years, a 3.00% rate was applied, consistent with the constraints of a mature packaged food market. The terminal growth rate is fixed at 3% to align with long-term economic assumptions, rather than serving as a judgment on this specific business. The fair value per share of $37.62 is derived by taking the intrinsic value of the business, adding cash and equivalents, and subtracting debt to isolate the value belonging to shareholders, which is then divided by 537.9 million shares. At the current price of $33.53, the upside to fair value—the degree the price must move to reach the estimate—is 12.20%. The margin of safety is 10.9%, representing the portion of the valuation that serves as a buffer against error in the underlying assumptions. This result is most sensitive to changes in the growth rate, as small adjustments to the expected cash flow expansion over the next decade significantly alter the terminal value calculation.
Overall Verdict
How the five signals above stack up together, then the full synthesis.
Earnings Yield
-4.96% vs ~4-5% bond-yield benchmark
Return on Capital
-18.83% ROC vs ~30% benchmark
Acquirer's Multiple
No usable signal for this company
FS-Score
4/10 — Proceed with caution
Intrinsic Value
12.2% upside to fair value
The framework utilizes five distinct metrics to evaluate General Mills Inc, splitting between measures of operational efficiency and price-based valuation. The Return on Capital of -18.83% relative to a 30% benchmark and the FS-Score of 4/10 reflect the business’s current operational performance. Simultaneously, valuation metrics present a mixed signal: the Earnings Yield of -4.96% falls below the 4-5% bond-yield benchmark, while the Intrinsic Value check indicates a 12.2% upside to fair value, which includes a margin of safety of 10.9%. The Acquirer's Multiple check is unavailable because the company's operating earnings are too thin relative to its enterprise value for a meaningful multiple to be produced. Tension exists between the company's internal operational benchmarks and the slight gap between its current price and fair value. The most significant shift in the overall picture would occur if the Return on Capital were to improve toward the 30% benchmark, as this would indicate a fundamental change in how efficiently the business generates returns.
Comments
Notes from readers on GIS — one each. Comments stay with the company, so they carry across to a later snapshot, and each one shows the date it was written.
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