DECK — Deckers Outdoor Corp
Snapshot dated September 28, 2026.
Deckers Outdoor Corp operates as a footwear and apparel company primarily recognized for its flagship brands UGG and Hoka. The company derives its revenue through a mix of wholesale channels, where it sells to major department stores and specialty retailers, and direct-to-consumer sales via its own e-commerce websites and branded retail stores. The UGG brand typically focuses on sheepskin footwear and cozy apparel, while the Hoka brand caters specifically to performance running and walking markets with distinctively cushioned footwear. The company maintains a global footprint, managing international supply chains to deliver products across North America, Europe, and Asia. In recent years, the company has pivoted its strategy toward emphasizing Hoka as a high-growth performance brand alongside the stable, legacy revenue base of its UGG portfolio. This business model balances seasonal demand for winter footwear with year-round performance athletic products to drive revenue across diverse consumer demographics.
Fair Value / Share
$132.78
Price on September 28, 2026
$78.25
Upside to fair value
69.69%
Margin of safety 41.1%
Upside is measured against what you pay; margin of safety is measured against what the business is worth.
Data by Equibles and SEC filings. Figures are as of September 28, 2026 and are not live.
Earnings Yield
Earnings Yield shows how much profit a company generates relative to its share price. EPS ÷ Stock Price.
Stock Price
$78.25
Market Cap
$10,842,241,750
Net Income (TTM)
$1,014,840,000
Diluted Shares
138.6 million
EPS (TTM)
$7.32
Earnings Yield
9.36%
AI Analysis
Deckers Outdoor Corp has an earnings yield of 9.36%, calculated using an EPS of $7.32 and a stock price of $78.25. This yield sits significantly above the 4-5% benchmark for a safe, guaranteed alternative like a bond. Mechanically, this gap suggests the current share price is low relative to the company's immediate annual earnings power, implying that the market is not pricing in expectations of high future growth, or is potentially pricing in specific risks associated with the retail sector. For this yield to decrease, the share price would need to rise or earnings would need to fall. This measure does not capture future cash flow growth, debt obligations, or the sustainability of current profit margins.
Return on Capital
EBIT ÷ (Net Working Capital + Net Fixed Assets) — how efficiently the business turns capital into profit.
EBIT (TTM)
$1,252,917,000
Net Working Capital
$255,809,000
Net Fixed Assets
$337,750,000
Invested Capital
$593,559,000
Return on Capital
211.09%
AI Analysis
Deckers Outdoor Corp generated an EBIT of $1.3B against an invested capital base of $593.6M, resulting in a return on capital of 211.09%. This figure is significantly higher than the 30% benchmark this framework uses to define an efficient use of capital. Such a result indicates that the business is producing a substantial amount of operating profit for every dollar of tangible capital employed in its operations. This measure does not capture industry-specific capital intensity, and businesses that are early in their growth phase or heavily reinvesting in infrastructure may naturally show lower figures that do not necessarily indicate inefficiency. Ultimately, the calculation of return on capital is sensitive to any changes in the company's net fixed assets or net working capital; shifts in how effectively the business manages its inventory or capital expenditures would directly alter the percentage in future periods.
Acquirer's Multiple
Enterprise Value ÷ Operating Earnings — how many years of operating earnings it would take to buy the whole business.
| Company | Operating earnings | Enterprise value | Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|
| DECKDeckers Outdoor Corp | $1.3B | $9.2B | 7.4x |
| CROXCrocs, Inc. | $840.6M | $7.4B | 8.7x |
| NKENIKE, Inc. | $4.2B | $52.8B | 12.5x |
Where DECK sits: 7.4x against a peer median of 10.6x (peers: 8.7x and 12.5x) — 30.6% below the median.
Show the enterprise value bridge for each companyHide the enterprise value bridge
DECK
Debt $0. This is the company's reported total debt — borrowings due within a year plus long-term borrowings. The company separately reports $472.3M of operating lease liabilities as of 2026-06-30 ($399M non-current, $73.4M current). These are excluded from debt because operating lease cost already sits inside operating earnings — counting the liability again as debt would charge the business twice for the same thing.
CROX
Named as a competitor: Competes in casual lifestyle footwear and comfort-focused footwear brands
Debt $1.3B. This is the company's reported total debt — borrowings due within a year plus long-term borrowings. The company separately reports $381.5M of operating lease liabilities as of 2026-06-30 ($291.4M non-current, $90.1M current). These are excluded from debt because operating lease cost already sits inside operating earnings — counting the liability again as debt would charge the business twice for the same thing.
NKE
Named as a competitor: Competes globally in performance running and athletic lifestyle footwear
Debt $7.9B. This is the company's reported total debt — borrowings due within a year plus long-term borrowings. The company separately reports $3.1B of operating lease liabilities as of 2026-05-31 ($2.6B non-current, $478M current). These are excluded from debt because operating lease cost already sits inside operating earnings — counting the liability again as debt would charge the business twice for the same thing.
Operating earnings — DECK
AI Analysis
The Acquirer's Multiple for Deckers Outdoor Corp (DECK) is 7.4x, derived from an enterprise value of $9.2B and operating earnings of $1.3B. Among its competitors, Crocs (CROX) holds a multiple of 8.7x, based on an enterprise value of $7.4B and operating earnings of $840.6M, while Nike (NKE) trades at 12.5x, reflecting an enterprise value of $52.8B and operating earnings of $4.2B. Consequently, CROX holds the lowest multiple among the peers, and NKE holds the highest. The computed comparison for DECK is 7.4x against a peer median of 10.6x (peers: 8.7x and 12.5x) — 30.6% below the median. This comparison is calculated using operating earnings, which excludes financing and tax effects; the gap between these multiples would narrow if the operating profit margins for DECK were to decline relative to its peers or if the capital structures and market perceptions of future growth prospects for the companies were to converge.
FS-Score
A 10-check read on financial health, across profitability, balance-sheet stability and operating momentum.
FS-Score
8/10
This company scores high on profitability, stability, and momentum.
Section 1
Current Profitability
3/3
This section is rated Strong because the business successfully met all three checks, converting accounting profits into real cash flow while maintaining high returns on assets.
- Return on Assets is positive at 27.77%.
- Free Cash Flow to Total Assets is positive at 29.76%.
- Accruals check passed with a value of 1.15, indicating cash from operations is higher than net income.
A score of 3/3 indicates that earnings are backed by actual cash inflows; a decline in the cash flow to net income ratio below 1.0 would signal a shift in earnings quality.
Return on Assets (ROA > 0)
PassFree Cash Flow to Total Assets (FCFTA > 0)
PassAccruals (CFO / Net Income > 1)
PassSection 2
Stability
2/3
This section is Mixed, as the company successfully managed its share count and debt levels but saw a slight reduction in its overall liquidity position.
- Long-term debt relative to assets remained flat with a current leverage figure of 0.
- Liquidity declined as the current ratio moved from 3.72 to 3.54.
- Net Dilution passed as the diluted share count fell to 145.8 million shares from 152.7 million shares.
The score reflects disciplined capital allocation through share buybacks, though a continued downward trend in the current ratio would further impact the liquidity assessment.
Change in Leverage (↓ or unchanged)
PassChange in Liquidity (↑ Current Ratio)
FailNet Dilution (annual diluted weighted-average shares, this year vs last)
PassSection 3
Recent Operational Improvements
3/4
This section is Strong, driven by increasing asset efficiency and improving cash generation despite a marginal decline in gross profitability per unit sold.
- Return on Assets improved year over year from 27.06% to 27.77%.
- Free Cash Flow to Total Assets rose from 26.84% to 29.76%.
- Gross Margin fell slightly from 57.88% to 57.70%.
- Asset Turnover increased from 1.4 to 1.48.
The business is generating more revenue for every dollar of assets held, though a reversal in gross margin or turnover would signal a cooling of this operational momentum.
Change in ROA (↑)
PassChange in FCFTA (↑)
PassChange in Gross Margin (↑)
FailChange in Asset Turnover (↑)
PassFramework conclusion
The company earned a total score of 8/10, indicating high financial stability driven primarily by strong profitability and operational improvements. This high score suggests that if the stock's price is low, it is more likely due to a market mispricing than to fundamental business deterioration. The score identifies a healthy balance sheet and efficient operations, though it does not account for future market demand or the specific price paid for the shares.
- Return on Assets improved to 27.77% over the prior year's 27.06%.
- Asset Turnover increased to 1.48 from 1.4, indicating higher revenue efficiency.
- Diluted shares outstanding were reduced to 145.8 million shares.
- Current ratio decreased from 3.72 to 3.54, resulting in one missed signal.
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
A 10-year discounted cash flow, then the bridge from business value to value per share.
Reported cash flow → unlevered free cash flow
Free Cash Flow (reported)
$1.1B
+ After-Tax Interest Expense
$2.8M
= Unlevered Free Cash Flow
$1.1B
Business value (10-year DCF)
PV of Years 1–10
$8.5B
PV of Terminal Value
$8.3B
= Business Value
$16.8B
Terminal value share
49.15%
Business value → share value
Intrinsic Value (business)
$16.8B
+ Cash & Equivalents
$1.6B
− Debt
$0
= Shareholders' Value
$18.4B
÷ Diluted Shares
138.6 million
= Fair Value / Share
$132.78
Divided by 138.6 million diluted shares — the weighted-average diluted count from the most recent quarterly income statement, for the quarter ended 2026-06-30.
Risk bucket → discount rate
mid (12%)
Year-1 FCF
$1.1B
Trailing twelve months.
FY2024 $943.8M · FY2025 $958.4M · FY2026 $1.1B
Growth rate (yrs 1–10)
8%
Terminal growth (after yr 10)
3%
AI Analysis
Deckers Outdoor Corp is placed in the mid-risk bucket with a 12% discount rate, reflecting the inherent volatility of the consumer discretionary sector where fashion cycles influence performance despite recent momentum. The forecast begins with a fixed $1.1B Year-1 free cash flow. An annual growth rate of 8.00% is applied, representing a normalized expectation compared to recent historical cash flow expansion. The terminal growth rate is fixed at 3%, ensuring that long-term assumptions align with general economic growth rather than unique business characteristics. The valuation framework determines the fair value per share by taking the sum of the present value of future cash flows, adding cash, and subtracting debt, which is then divided by 138.6 million shares. This computation results in a fair value per share of $132.78. Against the current price of $78.25, the upside to fair value is 69.69%. The margin of safety, which represents the buffer the estimate carries for potential calculation errors, is 41.1%. The final estimate is most sensitive to the 8.00% growth assumption; any material change in the company's ability to maintain that pace of cash flow generation would cause the fair value per share to deviate significantly.
Overall Verdict
How the five signals above stack up together, then the full synthesis.
Earnings Yield
9.36% vs ~4-5% bond-yield benchmark
Return on Capital
211.09% ROC vs ~30% benchmark
Acquirer's Multiple
7.4x against a peer median of 10.6x (peers: 8.7x and 12.5x) — 30.6% below the median.
FS-Score
8/10 — Financial rockstar
Intrinsic Value
69.69% upside to fair value
This framework measures business performance through Return on Capital and the FS-Score, while evaluating price through the Earnings Yield, Acquirer's Multiple, and Intrinsic Value. The current readings show high profitability, with Return on Capital at 211.09% and an FS-Score of 8/10, indicating strong operational performance. Simultaneously, the pricing metrics align with this profile: an Earnings Yield of 9.36% sits well above bond-yield benchmarks, while the Acquirer's Multiple of 7.4x remains 30.6% below the peer median. The Intrinsic Value estimate suggests 69.69% upside to fair value, with a margin of safety of 41.1%. Because both the operational quality checks and the valuation measures are positioned favorably, the five checks present a consistent picture. The result is anchored heavily by the Return on Capital figure; if the company's capital efficiency were to compress significantly due to increased competition or inventory inefficiency, the overall framework reading would shift substantially, even if the valuation multiples remained constant.
Comments
Notes from readers on DECK — one each. Comments stay with the company, so they carry across to a later snapshot, and each one shows the date it was written.
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